The demarcation of the course of the cold war in the region and around the world

The tendency

The demarcation of the course of the cold war in the region and around the world

The developments and facts in the region and around the world reveal that the negotiations are ongoing, especially between the American administration and the Russian and Chinese commands, over the demarcation of the course of the cold war being provoked by the defeat of the American unilateral hegemony project over the world.

Firstly, the United States is maintaining many cards in the ongoing negotiations, at a time when the tense arenas and the explosive issues are threatening with imminent confrontations that are neither wanted by the United States nor the major competing powers, namely Russia and China. The negotiations of the cold war on the basis of the new balances include the situation in the Arab region in particular and so far exclude the Arab-Israeli conflict due to the American ongoing adoption of Israel’s hostility. In the meantime, Syria and Iran are continuing to reject the provision of any guarantees for Israel’s security and the future of its existence, despite the massive pressures to which they have been subjected for many years.

Secondly, it has become a given that the Syrian national state headed by Doctor Bashar al-Assad cannot be undermined and that the negotiations are held with it and with its president, not against them, as it was believed by the American and Western leaders and their allies in Turkey and the Gulf. It has also become a given that the depletion game fueled by both Saudi Arabia and Qatar through the funding and arming of the terrorist gangs inside Syria, aim at generating conditions aiming at belittling the regional role played by Syria during the next stage. Indeed, they want the takfiri and Al-Qaeda groups to become a preemptive pressure card in the face of the threat of the Iranian, Syrian and Iraqi counterattack which will focus according to expectations on the heart of the Gulf and the Arab Peninsula. Hence, the postponement of the Syrian recovery is the only way to obstruct the development which might generate numerous surprises that would constitute a nightmare to the ruling Saudi family.

Thirdly, the negotiations which are expected to be held in a few days in Baghdad between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the P5+1 group will constitute a decisive factor in organizing the course of the cold war on the international and regional levels. At this level, experts expect to see the beginning of the American recognition of Iran as a regional superpower, starting with the settlement of the nuclear file. And it seems that the debates will be open vis-à-vis the possible inclusion of the so-called rebuilding of confidence at the level of bilateral relations between Tehran and Washington, in addition to the situation in the Gulf. And alongside the strong Iranian negotiator, there are the Chinese and Russian partners which are perceived by Iran as a guaranteeing force for the implementation of the American and western commitments.

Fourthly, Russia and Iran are also playing a similar role at the level of Syrian affairs through their strong presence in the context of Annan’s mission and its mechanisms. Hence, the troubles generated by the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Sarkozy’s friends only increased the Russian stringency which transformed the Syrian issue into a daily foreign policy affair, translated into a strict behavior at the level of confronting the missile shield file and advocating Russia’s wish to regain the traditional positions of influence in Asia and Eastern Europe. It seems that the Russian-Chinese sponsorship will knock on the door of the Security Council, while carrying what was accumulated by Syria’s steadfastness via Ambassador Bashar al-Jaafari in terms of documents and information related to the platforms of intervention in Syria –especially starting from Lebanon- and the evidence proving the implication of Turkey, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in a war mainly relying on terrorism.

Fifthly, with the determination of the course of the cold war between the superpowers based on the regional files, we will see a Western recognition of Iran’s strength alongside the failure to undermine Syria. This recognition will constitute in the next few weeks the instigator of the hysteria that will govern the Saudi positions in particular, as the Kingdom’s command is afraid to see the American and Western powers relinquishing its pivotal role in the region, at a time when the Saudi regime is besieged by numerous sources of pressure enhanced by the division inside the Saudi ruling institution between the conservative and liberal wings. The world and the region will witness an upcoming cold war that will topple all the illusions related to military interventions, without toppling the conflicts over power, the commercial war and the fierce fighting over the wealth, the natural resources and the pipelines transferring oil and gas across the continents.

New analysis

The fronts of exile and terrorism

The crisis of the transitional council of the Syrian opposition revealed the extent of the dangerous state of division reached by the political fronts of the war on Syria, at a time when the American and Western planners are admitting that the council constitutes an entity governed by disputes and competition over the command and the wealth, between a group of figures and sides which do not truly enjoy a real weight within Syrian society.

Firstly, the MB is the main force in the Syrian opposition movements. This organization which was faced with a state of popular rejection since the eighties, despite its attempts to show an adjustment tendency and a wish to review the calculations to overcome the widespread explosions and killings carried out by the MB in Syria during that time, failed to change the negative climate against it on the popular level. The Brotherhood’s predicament was renewed last year, considering that despite the attempts of General Observer Riad al-Shakfa to show a new image, the Syrians continued to perceive the Muslim Brotherhood based on the practical experience, i.e. as a power linked to foreign sides and funded by external parties. In the meantime, the inhabitants of many rural areas which were controlled by the opposition’s armed men witnessed a chaotic and tyrannical authority practicing killing and theft and hosting thieves, criminals and outlaws. The moderation claims promoted by the MB in Syria collapsed in light of the organization’s participation in the armed rebellion led by the sheikhs of takfir and the oppression and arbitrary persecution practiced against the citizens. The latter thus learned once again what it meant to walk behind the MB that hid behind the conflicting opposition movements- especially in the Istanbul council- continued to reject dialogue with the Syrian state and to demand the intervention and invasion of Syria by the NATO troops. In the meantime, these oppositions’ spokesman Borhgan Ghalioun announced on behalf of the council the submission to Israel and Syria’s transfer from a position of independence and resistance to a position of submission to Western and Israeli hegemony.

Secondly, the Istanbul council’s predicament and internal disputes constitute the practical outcome of the failure of the war on Syria and the collapse of all the wagers on foreign intervention whether by NATO or Turkey via the Security Council of from outside of it. Now, Riad al-Shakfa is recognizing this predicament by announcing that the MB will uphold its weapons in the absence of any other solution. By doing so, he is practically announcing the organization’s official transformation into a terrorist power within Syria, just like the other Takfiri groups mobilized by the Gulf intelligence apparatuses via Lebanon and Jordan to introduce them to Syria. It thus seems clear based on the course of events that the Syrian opposition movements are being dismantled by the conflicts over money and power and due to the multitude of groups linked to foreign intelligence apparatuses and their conflicting agendas following the failure.

Thirdly, these fronts have placed themselves outside the representational political scene in Syria, ever since they rejected dialogue and insisted on the calls for a foreign invasion of the country, due to their ongoing inability to polarize real popular support qualifying them to impose their presence in the equation. Since the beginning, the Syrian opposition movements led by the MB used some protests in the Syrian provinces witnessing turmoil to cover up the armed action turning towards terrorism and killing. The severance of the heads and the limbs, the assassinations, the explosions and the burning of public facilities confirmed that the Syrian oppositions are unable to lead a real popular action and are actually heading towards armed rebellion and terrorism against the state and society.

Fourthly, the fate of the Syrian oppositions is already clear and quite similar to the reality of the Iranian opposition movements under the command of Mujahedee e-Khalq. The Iranian opposition and the scattered groups inside and outside of it, including the remnants of the regime of the shah, are all acting in the West as political fronts, thus organizing seminars and conferences and issuing insults upon Western orders. They have been hosting their celebrations for a quarter of a century in Brussels, Washington and Sydney with direct American and European funding and concealed Gulf support. These bankrupt and impotent fronts living in exile are managing terrorist groups inside Iran under the supervision of the American and Israeli intelligence services. In the upcoming stage, the Syrian oppositions will also turn into fronts living in exile and controlled by the West to pressure Syria and affect its political image, as it is recovering from the dangerous crisis it is currently witnessing.

In the next few weeks the Syrian state which is renewing its institutions, will regain full control over the entire Syrian soil by liquidating the remaining pockets of the armed rebellion and terrorism. Nonetheless, its war with the terrorist groups linked to foreign sides seems prone to continue, without this war obstructing the progress towards the reinstatement of normalcy and the announcement of victory over the colonial war which was lost by the United States, the government of Ottoman illusion and the Saudi and Qatari governments. In the meantime, the Lebanese platform which participated in this war under the Syrian watchful political and security eye will be controlled within a short period of time, in collaboration with the Lebanese state.

Al-Qaeda and Al-Saud family

The Al-Saud family decided to revive Washington’s experience with Al-Qaeda and use it in the war on Syria, just like Washington and Al-Saud family had decided to fund the organization to participate in the Afghan war in the eighties. What happened back then is being repeated today. Indeed, Al-Qaeda has turned against them after it has started to expand, spread, and acquire money, weapons and elements. It has positioned itself in Northern Lebanon and under the wing of the opposition’s armed men in Syria, while using the political and media mobilization against Syria to earn international, Arab and regional protection in the context of the global war on Syria and the resistance.

Al-Qaeda, Washington, and the rulers of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey are all in one front in the war on Syria, while none among the sides of this devious alliance has any problem with that situation. A week after the Damascus criminal explosions which were carried out by Al-Qaeda and which the Gulf media outlets said were staged by the Syrian state - which they accused of killing its own people - Ban Ki-Moon woke up to Bashar al-Jafaari’s warnings after he said “you are supporting terrorism and providing it with an international cover.” This prompted Ban Ki-Moon to announce that Al-Qaeda was standing behind the Damascus explosions. Is this a conscience awakening or the expression of fear over Al-Saud family, O Ban Ki-Moon!

Arab affairs

Syria

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad warned in an interview with the Russia 24 channel the states he said were spreading chaos in Syria against the fact that this chaos could be transferred to them. Moreover, Al-Assad assured that the legislative elections recently held in his country revealed that the people supported the regime and did not succumb to the threats of the terrorists, adding: “The Western sanctions affected Syria’s economy but Damascus maintains exceptional relations with the non-Western states.”

Syria’s envoy to the United Nations Doctor Bashar al-Jaafari surrendered to United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon a Syrian letter, revealing in detail the widespread operations which include the smuggling of weapons by armed gangs, as well as the arrest of 38 armed men of Saudi, Egyptian, and Libyan origins and who all recognized they were preparing to enter the Syrian territories to participate in the criminal acts. The letter added that weapons were reaching the Lebanese territories by sea or through the use of aircrafts affiliated with specific states, under the pretext of carrying humanitarian aid to the Syrian refugees in Lebanon.

In the meantime Borhan Ghalioun was reelected as head of the Syrian National Council and stated he now supported the arming of the Free Syrian Army. Ghalioun later on announced he would be willing to resign after signs of disgruntlement and resignations emerged against his continuation at the head of the council, in yet a new episode for the escalation of the dispute and the conflicts between the Syrian opposition movements, and the impossibly to unify them despite the American, Turkish, Qatari and French efforts and pressures.

Palestine

On Tuesday, the Palestinians revived the 64th anniversary of the Naqba. Hundreds among them were hit with rubber bullets and tear gas bombs during clashes with the Zionist occupation troops in various areas of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. In the meantime, the Palestinian detainees signed a deal with the Israeli prisons authority at the Askalan prison, thus ending their hunker strike via Egyptian mediation. Palestinian President Mahmud Abbas announced the formation of a new government headed by Salam Fayyad and including ten new ministers. For its part, the Hamas Movement considered that the new government “enhanced division and the state of illegitimacy.”

Egypt

The higher administrative court assured that the elections will be held on time on May 23rd and 24th. In the meantime, Egypt’s embassies and consulates announced the outcome of the Egyptians’ voting abroad, while the results announced so far revealed a lead by Doctor Abdel Monem Abu al-Foutouh, as well as by former Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa and Hamdin Sabahi.

Israeli file

The ending of the prisoners strike was the most prominent topic tackled by the Israeli newspapers issued last week, in addition to the violent clashes which erupted between the Palestinians and Israel on the anniversary of Al-Naqba. The papers also commented on the turmoil within the army intelligence apparatus after a third senior officer resigned from his position in protest against the appointments made by Major General Aviv Kochavi inside the intelligence body.

On the other hand, the papers tackled the third visit conducted by the defense minister to Washington this year, as well as India’s refusal to receive him to prevent the eruption of any clashes with the Muslims. In the meantime, Yediot Aharonot’s report about a major Saudi oil company which is owned by Sheikh Abdel Aziz al-Fayd, one of the men of the religious movement in Saudi Arabia, having purchased a computer program from an Israeli company, was one of the major topics addressed by the papers issued this week, in addition to the United States’ decision to grant Israel an additional 70 billion dollars to develop another system in the context of the Iron Dome.

Lebanese file

The situation exploded in Tripoli after the general security apparatus arrested Shadi al-Mawlawi who belongs to the Salafi movement and who is suspected of enjoying ties with a terrorist organization. This provoked the Islamists’ anger, prompting them to firstly block the roads and the squares with protests and burned tires. The conformation then moved between the Jabal Mohsen and Bab al-Tebbaneh areas, causing the fall of dozens of citizens among dead and wounded. Ever since the beginning of the security tensions, in Tripoli the Lebanese army adopted a series of security measures and entered the areas witnessing confrontations in Bab al-Tebbaneh and Jabal Mohsen, although it was subjected to shootings on several occasions in Bab al-Tebbaneh and the Syria Street and although it saw the fall of martyrs and wounded in its ranks.

Consequently, the higher defense council headed by President Michel Suleiman held an urgent meeting at the Baabda Palace. According to the information acquired by the papers, the presidential instructions were clear and strict, stipulating the abstinence from showing any leniency with anyone and the refusal to succumb to the pressures, regardless of their shape. The presidential instructions also stressed the provision of full political cover to the military and security apparatuses in order to allow them to carry out their tasks and block the way before strife and the violation of national security.

Annahar has learned that among the arrestees were also a Jordanian, Palestinian and Qatari nationals, all of whom were interrogated against the backdrop of their connection to Al-Qaeda organization and are to stand before military Judge Nabil Wehbe. For his part, the head of General Security General Abbas Ibrahim said that Al-Mawlawi’s arrest was coordinated with a Western security apparatus, assuring: “This file was coordinated with a superpower and I do not think it would lead it to denominational or sectarian alleyways.” He assured that Al-Mawlawi’s arrest had nothing to do with Syria, adding he received information about the presence of one or many individuals practicing terrorism in the country, which prompted him to go back to the judiciary and act based on this information.

Speaker Nabih Berri expressed his relief towards the deployment of the army in Tripoli, assuring to As-Safir that what was required was to provide all the facilitations to ensure the success of its mission in containing the security situation and preventing strife. He indicated that the major mistake that happened was the ending of national dialogue, pointing to the importance of dialogue in such difficult circumstances.

Former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri issued a statement in which he assured that the apparatus which arrested Al-Mawlawi should only be held responsible on the legal level, adding that any slide towards the weapons game and anarchy on the street for whichever reason would be a crime committed against the city. In response to Speaker Berri’s call for dialogue, Al-Hariri said: “Tripoli does not need dialogue. It needs a decision to transform it –just as Beirut- into a disarmed city.”

For his part, Army Commander Jean Kahwaji stressed the importance of the military institution’s status, adding to As-Safir: “If the army’s status is affected, there will be nothing left of the military institution. Consequently, the strengthening of the military institution should be the foundation on which all the politicians rely, considering that this institution’s strength means further reassurance for all the citizens.”

On the other hand, As-Safir quoted widely knowledgeable sources as saying they received reliable information regarding terrorist attacks which were being planed. The sources said that states informed the relevant sides in Beirut about this information, which intersected with similar data acquired by some Lebanese security apparatuses regarding the fact that a terrorist group affiliated with an extremist organization recently entered Lebanon to carry out sabotage operations, including assassinations against a number of Lebanese figures based on a specific list of targets featuring among others Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri